A key indicator of a coming economic downturn is pricing in nearly 100% chance of a 'Powell recession' in 2023

Dec 7 2022 by Business Insider

 
Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome Powell.

Jacquelyn Martin/AP

The NY Fed's Recession Probability model is flashing alarms for an incoming downturn, with odds at 38%. But given how reliable the indicator is, that's really a near-100% chance of a recession, according to DataTrek's Nicholas Colas. "It is clearly saying high short term interest rates are going to cause a recession in the next 12 months. Moreover, these odds are very likely to increase," Colas warned.

The New York Fed's Recession...

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