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When a new Congress convenes on Tuesday, lawmakers will do what they have done for centuries: elect a speaker.

But for the first time in exactly 100 years, that election may not be decided on the first ballot—and may not be settled by the day’s end.

That’s because, just hours before the roll is called, Speaker-elect Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) doesn’t appear to have the votes. At least not yet. And barring a dramatic...

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